Daily Murders in the nation Fall 37% Under Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Government Statistics

The mean number of per-day murders monthly in the country has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to recent official statistics. But, security specialists have cautioned that homicide data might not point to better countrywide stability.

Notable Drop in Daily Averages

Officials reported an average of close to 55 killings a day in last November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in September. This announcement was delivered by the director of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we’ve had in these past months is remarkably significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, noting that the previous month the lowest amount of homicides were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Intense organized crime rivalries, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent times. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a murder figure more than four times higher than the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security strategy for an seemingly more pronounced reduction in killings this year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state declared: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is specific tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Greater collaboration between government agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Limitations

However, public safety analysts cautioned that using murder statistics to paint a picture of peace was flawed. This is notably true given the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“This would be very good information if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just look at the murder data and conclude: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not useful for gauging the situation of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the will to accurately identify and classify corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly averages of daily killings was additionally concerning because it might hide days when there were especially spiking numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean renders spikes of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

However in spite of these measures, Mexico is still plagued by high bloodshed, with several regions in the throes of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and throughout the country to express their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to create a story of security. Politically it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” Vargas concluded.